The overall market prospects of toy import and export trade present a situation of both opportunities and challenges. The following analysis is conducted from the dimensions of core driving factors, segmented market potential, regional market dynamics, policy and technological impact, etc.:

1、 Global market size and growth resilience

Overall growth is stable

The global toy market size will reach 108 billion US dollars in 2024, although slightly down 0.6% year-on-year, the long-term growth momentum remains strong. It is expected that by 2032, the market size will continue to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 4.5%, driven by core factors including:

Consumption upgrade: The expansion of the middle class (such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East) drives demand for mid to high end toys;

Technology integration: AI, AR/VR technology empowers intelligent toys (such as programming robots, interactive dolls);

Emotional value: trendy and collectible toys (such as blind boxes and IP derivatives) have become emerging consumer hotspots.

Explosive growth of e-commerce channels

The size of the toy e-commerce market is expected to increase from $55.1 billion in 2024 to $85.57 billion in 2029, accounting for over 65% of the global toy market. Cross border e-commerce platforms such as Amazon and eBay have become key channels for small and medium-sized enterprises to enter the international market, such as:

EBay's key categories: remote control toys, models, board games, and other categories have seen significant growth, with an increasing proportion of adult collection demand;

TikTok Shop Case: The Chenghai Toy Industry Belt in China sold over 10000 remote-controlled cars in a single day through live streaming sales.

2、 Core Growth Engines: Segmented Markets and Technological Trends

Intelligent toys and educational products

AI Toy Explosion: The global AI toy market is expected to reach $18.1 billion by 2024 and surpass $60 billion by 2033, with the Asian market dominating. For example:

The export value of magnetic accretion wood from Ningbo Feixiang Toy Technology increased by 110.1% year-on-year, with intelligent interactive functions becoming the core selling point;

Dongguan Junou Toys' AI plush toy "Zhixiaobao" has opened up the Southeast Asian market through multi language dialogue function.

STEM educational toys: By 2025, the size of China's educational toy market will exceed 200 billion yuan, with an annual sales growth of 42% in categories such as programming robots and scientific experiment kits.

Trendy toys and IP derivatives

High speed expansion of the fashion game market: in 2024, the scale of China's fashion game market will reach 72.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and the categories such as blind box, manual, building block people will occupy the mainstream. Overseas markets are also hot, for example:

Bubble Mart's overseas business revenue increased by 475% year-on-year, and IPs such as Labubu sparked a buying frenzy in Southeast Asia;

The annual sales of Senbao building blocks' "Wandering Earth" IP series exceeded 30 million yuan, and the recognition of China-Chic toys in the European and American markets increased.

Significant growth in authorized toys: Global authorized toy revenue accounts for 34%, with evergreen IPs (such as Disney and Marvel) and local cultural IPs (such as Chinese zodiac) becoming key differentiators in competition.

Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development Trends

Policy forcing transformation: The EU's Sustainable Product Eco Design Regulation (ESPR) requires toys to use biodegradable materials, and Mattel and Lego have committed to fully adopting recycled or bio based plastics by 2030. Chinese companies need to accelerate compliance, for example:

Ningbo Jimmy Toys successfully responded to the EU's new regulations on children's toys through customs technical trade services;

The market size of environmentally friendly materials is expected to double from 15 billion yuan in 2025 to 30 billion yuan in 2030.

Consumer preference change: 45% of young American parents prioritize environmentally friendly toys, with FSC certified wood and plant-based plastics becoming new selling points.

3、 Regional Market Dynamics: Differentiation between Traditional and Emerging Markets

Mature market: stable demand but high threshold

European and American markets: still the largest consumer market (accounting for over 50% of the world), but with strict safety standards. For example:

The United States requires toys to provide CPSC certification and tracking labels, and electric toys must pass FCC certification;

The EU's new regulations require toys to be labeled with digital certificates and prohibit the use of carcinogenic chemicals.

Japanese and Korean markets: preference for high-end design and educational toys, such as the high recognition of Japan's "ST Toy Safety Standards".

Emerging markets: great potential but significant volatility

Southeast Asian market:

The market size is expected to increase from 5.64 billion US dollars in 2023 to 6.52 billion US dollars in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 7%;

Vietnam and Indonesia have taken over some of China's production capacity transfer, but China's toy exports to ASEAN will decline by 1.73% year-on-year in 2024. We need to be vigilant about price competition and supply chain fluctuations.

Middle East and Latin American markets:

Middle East prefers electric and audio-visual toys, with concentrated demand during Ramadan and holidays;

Mexico has become the fourth largest toy export market for China (with an export value of 1.549 billion US dollars in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.28%).

Russian market: Affected by sanctions, China's toy exports to Russia in 2024 dropped to $885 million, the lowest in nearly five years.

Regional trade agreement dividends

RCEP effect: China's toy exports to member countries have significantly increased, for example:

Ningbo's exports to RCEP countries increased by 27.4% year-on-year, and Heyuan enterprises reduced tariffs by about 9.4 million yuan through RCEP;

By 2025, the proportion of Chinese plastic toy exports to RCEP member countries is expected to increase to 39%.

4、 Policy and Supply Chain Challenges

Trade barriers and tariff pressures

US tariff threat: If a 145% tariff is imposed on Chinese toys, the cost of China's supply chain will increase by 58%, but it will be difficult to be completely replaced by Southeast Asia in the short term.

Technical trade measures: The European Union, the United States, and others are constantly updating toy safety standards, such as the EU adding chemical substance restrictions on children's toys in 2024.

Supply chain restructuring

Capacity transfer: Some companies have relocated their production lines to Vietnam and Mexico to avoid tariffs, but they are facing labor shortages and insufficient supply chain support.

Cluster based overseas expansion: China and Indonesia jointly build the "Global Toy Dream Factory", integrating mold, packaging, and logistics resources to reduce overall costs.

5、 Key to Breaking Through: Corporate Strategy and Trends

Product Innovation and Differentiation

Technology integration: Developing high-tech products such as AI toys and AR education kits, such as Dongguan Shunlian Animation's intelligent amphibious remote control car, which is popular in Europe and America.

Cultural empowerment: tap local IP (such as the Chinese zodiac, mythological stories), such as the new Jiaqi "Robot Snake" China-Chic building blocks sold well on cross-border e-commerce platforms.

Channel diversification and localization

Deep cultivation of cross-border e-commerce: using platforms such as eBay and TikTok Shop to directly reach consumers, for example, the Chenghai Toy Industry Belt connects with global buyers through the "Xiaoniao Cloud" platform.

Overseas warehouse layout: Set up warehouse centers in the target market to shorten delivery time (such as achieving 3-day delivery in the US warehouse).

Compliance and Sustainable Development

Certification first: Apply for target market certification (such as CE, CPSC) in advance and cooperate with institutions such as SGS.

Green production: using biodegradable materials such as bamboo fiber and recycled plastics to respond to ESG investment trends.

6、 Summary: Outlook and Action Suggestions

Optimistic factors

The demand for smart toys, trendy toys, and educational products continues to grow;

Cross border e-commerce and regional trade agreements lower market access barriers;

Environmental protection and technological innovation have given rise to new tracks.

Risk statement

Trade frictions and tariff fluctuations may impact traditional markets;

The intensification of competition in emerging markets and the compression of profit margins;

Technological iteration accelerates, and enterprises need to continue investing in research and development.

Action suggestion:

Focus on high growth categories: prioritize the layout of smart toys, trendy toys, STEM education products;

Deeply cultivate segmented markets, such as adult collectible toys, pet interactive toys, and other blue ocean fields;

Building a resilient supply chain: diversifying risks through the "China+Southeast Asia" dual base model;

Strengthen compliance capabilities: Establish an international certification team to dynamically track policy changes.